Carstens Financial Group
  • Home
  • About Us
    • Pro-Am
  • Services
    • Retirement Income Strategies
    • Tax-Efficient Solutions
    • Investment Planning
    • Long-Term Care
    • Estate Preservation
    • Securities
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Contact

Blog

What Do January’s Market Returns Mean for the Rest of the Year?

1/28/2019

 
Picture
It’s that time again. A new year is here, which means a volatile 2018 is in the rearview mirror. The markets suffered a steep drop at the end of last year after climbing steadily through the first three quarters. A number of factors contributed to the markets’ fourth-quarter tumble, including tariffs, interest rate hikes and trouble in the tech sector.
 
A new year doesn’t mean those challenges are gone, but it does represent a fresh start. And if history is any guide, January can be a strong month for investors. According to a study from LPL Research, in the 68 years from 1950 through 2017, January has been a positive month for the S&P 500 41 times. It’s been negative 27 times.1
 
As any investor knows, history doesn’t guarantee future performance. However, there does seem to be a correlation between market performance in January and the rest of the year.
​
How do January returns impact the rest of the year?
 
According to LPL Research, there’s a relationship between January returns and market returns over the remainder of the year. Its research showed that during years in which there was a positive January return, the market had an average return of 12.2 percent over the next 11 months. When the January return was negative, the S&P 500 returned only 1.2 percent the rest of the year.1
 
If January returns are more than 5 percent, the correlation is even more pronounced. In those years, the market had an average return of 15.8 percent over the next 11 months. In fact, when January has a return of more than 5 percent, the rest of the year is positive 91.7 percent of the time.1

What is the January effect?
 
Why has January been positive more often than not? And why does January’s return seem to impact the rest of the year? There are no definitive answers to these questions, but there are theories.

There’s an idea called the “January effect,” which suggests that January returns may be the product of tax strategy. Investors sell stocks in December to harvest tax losses before the end of the year. That depresses prices and creates a buying opportunity in January. Because investors sold at the end of the year, there’s cash on the table to buy in the beginning of the next year.
 
Of course, this is just a theory. There’s no way to conclusively prove whether the January effect is a real phenomenon. Even if it could be proved, it’s never wise to change your long-term investment strategy based on short-term opportunities.
 
If you’re concerned about the volatility in 2018 or the coming year, now is a great time to meet with a financial professional. They can help you review your strategy and possibly make changes that reduce your risk exposure and allow you to take advantage of opportunities.
 
Ready to evaluate your investment strategy? Let’s talk about it. Contact us today at Carstens Financial Group. We can help you analyze your needs and goals and implement a plan. Let’s connect soon and start the conversation.
 
1https://www.thestreet.com/story/14469889/1/stock-market-s-strong-january-performance-bodes-well-for-the-rest-of-the-year.html
 
Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.
 
18345 - 2018/12/31

Comments are closed.

    Kirt Carstens

    Carstens Financial Group focuses on providing comprehensive asset management, estate planning and life insurance solutions. Allow us to help you secure your financial future.

    Archives

    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014

    Categories

    All
    2020
    CARES Act
    COVID
    Economic Update
    Election
    Employer Plans
    Estate Planning
    Fed Chairman
    Financial Planning
    Fourth Quarter
    FRA
    Full Retirement Age
    Funding
    GDP
    Health Care
    Health Savings Account
    HSA
    Income
    Inflation
    Insurance
    Managing Medical Expenses
    Medicare
    Planning
    Portfolio
    Retirement
    Retirement Home
    Retirement Planning
    Retirement Strategy
    Risk
    Risk Tolerance
    Say Yes
    Social Security
    Stimulus
    Stock Market
    Supplemental Retirement Income
    Tax Planning
    The Market
    Working In Retirement
    Working Part Time
    Yes

    RSS Feed

Kirt Carstens, CLU, ChFC
Investment Advisor Representative
P: (712) 332-5960
F: (712) 332-5391

605 Hwy 71 S
Arnolds Park, IA 51331
Get Directions

Home     About Us     Services     Resources     Blog     Contact

This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation.

Securities and Advisory Services offered through CreativeOne Securities, LLC Member FINRA/SIPC and an Investment Advisor.  Carstens Financial Group and CreativeOne Securities, LLC are not affiliated.
​
This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional.  The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time.  All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only.  It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. 

Check the background of an investment professional.  |  Privacy Policy
  • Home
  • About Us
    • Pro-Am
  • Services
    • Retirement Income Strategies
    • Tax-Efficient Solutions
    • Investment Planning
    • Long-Term Care
    • Estate Preservation
    • Securities
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Contact