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October Recap: Markets Stumble but GDP Surges

11/6/2020

 
Picture
The recovery in the financial markets hit some turbulence in October, as investors wrestled with anxiety about increasing COVID cases. However, a surge in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter may signal that the economy is on the rebound.1
 
Through October 28, all major indexes had mostly recouped most of their losses from the COVID crash in March. However, all were down for the month of October. Below is each index’s return from October 1 through October 28:
 
S&P 500: -2.73%2
DJIA: -4.54%3
NASDAQ: -1.46%4
 
Here are the year-to-date returns of the major indexes:
 
S&P 500: 0.40%2
DJIA: -8.14%3
NASDAQ: 21.04%4
 
What spooked the markets in October? There are a few factors, but as is the case with most things in 2020, COVID may be the primary factor.

​COVID Cases Ramp Up

The COVID numbers are surging in the United States, suggesting that the end of the pandemic may be nowhere in sight. On Wednesday, October 28, the seven-day average for new daily cases hit an all-time high of 71,832, an increase of more than 20% in only a week.5
 
Twenty-nine states hit record levels for daily new cases in October. Forty states had an increase of 10% just in the last week of October.6 Thirty-six states had increases of at least 5% in COVID-related hospitalizations in the final week of October.5
 
The surge in cases is leading to a new round of business closures and regulations. Illinois recently stopped indoor dining at bars and restaurants.7 Investors may be spooked by the prospect of a second round of closures and its impact on the economy. A new report from Yelp found that 60% of businesses that were shutdown for COVID will never reopen.8

​Stimulus Outlook

The uncertainty of a second stimulus may also be a drag on the markets. In fact, Gary Cohn, former president and CEO of Goldman Sachs and former White House National Economic Council Director, says it is a primary factor driving the markets’ poor performance in October.9
 
He added in a recent interview that, “no one thinks we’re going to have stimulus until after the election,” and that, “we know that the markets do not like unpredictability.” He said that there was “100% probability” that stimulus won’t happen until after November 3rd, and possibly not until after the inauguration.9

​Fund Flows

Some recent data on mutual fund flows may provide insight into how investors feel about the financial markets. Through October 21, equity funds (including mutual funds and ETFs) saw net outflows for 11 consecutive weeks. That means more money flowed out of these funds than flowed into them.10
 
On the other side, taxable fixed-income ETFs have seen four straight weeks of net inflows. That may mean that investors are leaving equities for fixed income securities, even with interest rates near zero.10

​GDP Surges in 3rd Quarter

On a positive note, GDP surged by 33.1% in the third quarter, beating analyst expectations of 32%. The third quarter number is the largest quarterly GDP gain on record, easily beating the previous high of 16.7% in the third quarter of 1950.11
 
Of course, the third quarter surge comes after a 31.4% decline in GDP in the second quarter. Even with the increase in the third quarter, the economy is still projected to contract by 3.5% in 2020.11
 
The markets and the economy have rebounded, but the future is still uncertain. This may be a good time to explore options that can protect your assets from market volatility. Contact us today at Carstens Financial Group.  We can help you explore these options and implement a strategy to protect your financial future. Let’s connect today and start the conversation.
 
 
1https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-october-29-2020.html
2https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
3https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX
4https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ
5https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/covid-cases-hospitalizations-continue-to-surge-as-us-reaches-critical-point-in-pandemic.html
6https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html
7https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-october-28-2020.html
8https://nypost.com/2020/09/17/majority-of-covid-19-business-closures-are-permanent-report/
9https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stimulus-donald-trump-gary-cohn-markets-100-percent-probability-deal-wont-pass-before-the-election-214720697.html
10https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2020/10/u-s-weekly-fundflows-insight-report-etf-and-fund-investors-focus-on-fixed-income-during-the-fund-flows-week/
11https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html

Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency. 20420 - 2020/9/18

COVID Economic Update: Is a Second Stimulus on the Horizon?

9/1/2020

 
Picture
As the COVID-19 pandemic stretches into its seventh month, leaders in Washington are debating a second stimulus bill. On August 8, President Trump signed executive orders that extended the federal unemployment benefit, but reduced the amount from $600 per week to $400. The orders also suspended the payroll tax through the end of the year, and suspended interest on federal student loans.1
 
However, even as President Trump signed the orders, Republicans and Democrats continued to negotiate terms for a second stimulus package. Democrats support a $3 trillion package known as the HEROES Act, while Republicans have their own $1 trillion HEALS Act.1
 
It’s unclear whether the final bill will include direct stimulus payments to Americans. Both Republicans and Democrats have endorsed the idea. However, it’s difficult to predict at this point what stimulus payments may be included in the final legislation.

Market Update

Despite the uncertainty surrounding COVID, the election, and the overall economy, the financial markets continue to climb. After suffering deep losses earlier in the year, two of the three major market indexes are in positive territory. Through August 10, all index year-to-date returns are:
 
S&P 500: 3.53%2
DJIA: -2.57%3
NASDAQ: 22.24%4
 
While the markets have mostly recovered from their losses earlier in the year, volatility can strike at any time. That’s especially true should the COVID pandemic worsen or if the economy suffers continued damage. There also may be increasing uncertainty as the election approaches.
 
If you're concerned about risk, let’s talk about it. There are a wide range of strategies and tools we can implement to minimize risk and help protect your financial future. Let’s connect today and discuss your needs, goals and concerns. At Carstens Financial Group, we welcome the opportunity to help you implement the right strategy for your objectives.
 
1https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/08/10/does-trumps-executive-order-mean-theres-no-second-stimulus-check-coming/#170371841d71
2https://www.google.com/search?q=INDEXSP:.INX&tbm=fin&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRowi3w8sc9YSntSWtOXmNU5eIKzsgvd80rySypFBLnYoOyeKW4uTj1c_UNDM0qi4t5FrHyePq5uEYEB1jpefpFAAAU6wGESAAAAA#scso=_N64yX_KZKca7tQawrZbwAg1:0
3https://www.google.com/search?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&tbm=fin&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRozC3w8sc9YSmtSWtOXmNU4eIKzsgvd80rySypFBLjYoOyeKS4uDj0c_UNkgsry3kWsfJ6-rm4Rrh4RVjpuXh5AgAzsV5OSAAAAA#scso=_h64yX9HyDLOO9PwPrMKg2Ac1:0
4https://www.google.com/search?q=NASDAQ:NDAQ&tbm=fin&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRoyi3w8sc9YSmdSWtOXmNU4-IKzsgvd80rySypFJLgYoOy-KR4uLj0c_UNzKtyzQyKeRaxcvs5Brs4Blr5AQkAEbRSnEgAAAA#scso=_7a0yX-q3AcyxtQbPt7HICg1:0
 
Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency. 20363 – 2020/8/20

    Kirt Carstens

    Carstens Financial Group focuses on providing comprehensive asset management, estate planning and life insurance solutions. Allow us to help you secure your financial future.

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This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation.

Securities and Advisory Services offered through CreativeOne Securities, LLC Member FINRA/SIPC and an Investment Advisor.  Carstens Financial Group and CreativeOne Securities, LLC are not affiliated.
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This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional.  The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time.  All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only.  It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. 

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