Carstens Financial Group
  • Home
  • About Us
    • Pro-Am
  • Services
    • Retirement Income Strategies
    • Tax-Efficient Solutions
    • Investment Planning
    • Long-Term Care
    • Estate Preservation
    • Securities
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Contact

Blog

Is September the Worst Month for Investing?

9/11/2019

 
Picture
Fall is here. Ok, it’s not actually official until September 22. However, the unofficial start of fall arrived in late August. Starbucks added pumpkin spice drinks to their menu. For many, that’s a surefire sign that cooler weather, football, and fall bonfires are right around the corner.
 
While fall may be a favorite time of year for many people, it hasn’t historically been a great season for investors. In fact, September is historically the worst month for stock market returns. Going back to 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has a -0.8% average return in September while the S&P 500 has a -0.5% average return.1 Those averages are worse than the average return for any other month.
 
September isn’t down every year, but it happens frequently enough that the phenomenon has generated a nickname - the September Effect. What’s the cause of the September Effect? And how can you prepare? Below are some tips and guidance to help you plan.

Why does the September Effect happen? 

There’s no clear answer why the September Effect happens. Or even if it’s a real phenomenon at all. Some people think it’s related to tax planning. People sell down positions before the fourth quarter in order to harvest potential tax losses. The widespread selling causes a downturn in the market.
 
Others suspect that the phenomenon is related to the end of summer. People think about their portfolio and investments over the summer, but don’t take action because they’re busy with vacations and other activities. After summer is over, they sell positions and make adjustments and, again, the widespread selling causes a slight downturn.
 
Of course, there’s also the possibility that there is no actual cause. It’s possible that the phenomenon is completely coincidental. It doesn’t happen every year. In fact, over the past 25 years, the median return in September for the S&P 500 has been positive.1 It’s possible that there is no actual September effect and the historical returns are a matter of circumstance.

How do you prepare for the September effect? 

you may be curious about how you should prepare for the September effect, or if you should at all. The short answer is that it usually isn’t wise to plan your retirement strategy based on short-term expectations.

While September may have a history of being negative, that doesn’t mean it always is. Also, it’s incredibly difficult to predict the market’s movement in the short-term, if not impossible. You could make changes to your strategy in expectation of a downturn and the market could do the exact opposite.
 
Instead, focus on your long-term strategy. Your retirement planning approach should be based on your unique goals, needs, and risks. That strategy shouldn’t change just because one month may have poor returns.
 
If you don’t have a long-term retirement strategy, now may be the time to develop one. Let’s talk about it. Contact us at Carstens Financial Group. We can help you analyze your needs and implement a strategy. We can help you analyze your goals and possible risks and implement a plan. Let’s connect soon and start the conversation.
 
1https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/septworstmonth.asp
 
Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.
 
19184 - 2019/8/23

Comments are closed.

    Kirt Carstens

    Carstens Financial Group focuses on providing comprehensive asset management, estate planning and life insurance solutions. Allow us to help you secure your financial future.

    Archives

    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014

    Categories

    All
    2020
    CARES Act
    COVID
    Economic Update
    Election
    Employer Plans
    Estate Planning
    Fed Chairman
    Financial Planning
    Fourth Quarter
    FRA
    Full Retirement Age
    Funding
    GDP
    Health Care
    Health Savings Account
    HSA
    Income
    Inflation
    Insurance
    Managing Medical Expenses
    Medicare
    Planning
    Portfolio
    Retirement
    Retirement Home
    Retirement Planning
    Retirement Strategy
    Risk
    Risk Tolerance
    Say Yes
    Social Security
    Stimulus
    Stock Market
    Supplemental Retirement Income
    Tax Planning
    The Market
    Working In Retirement
    Working Part Time
    Yes

    RSS Feed

Kirt Carstens, CLU, ChFC
Investment Advisor Representative
P: (712) 332-5960
F: (712) 332-5391

605 Hwy 71 S
Arnolds Park, IA 51331
Get Directions

Home     About Us     Services     Resources     Blog     Contact

This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation.

Securities and Advisory Services offered through CreativeOne Securities, LLC Member FINRA/SIPC and an Investment Advisor.  Carstens Financial Group and CreativeOne Securities, LLC are not affiliated.
​
This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional.  The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time.  All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only.  It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. 

Check the background of an investment professional.  |  Privacy Policy
  • Home
  • About Us
    • Pro-Am
  • Services
    • Retirement Income Strategies
    • Tax-Efficient Solutions
    • Investment Planning
    • Long-Term Care
    • Estate Preservation
    • Securities
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Contact